English (Original)
With its increasing heatwaves, floods, and storms, climate change is influencing holiday choices. In recent years, tourism patterns have changed to follow a trend the industry has called ‘coolcations’. Travellers seek cooler destinations, such as Norway, Denmark, Finland, and Sweden, to avoid extreme heat. Norwegian Air added 10 new routes to northern Norway in response to growing demand, while international arrivals to Norway, Ireland, and Sweden increased by over 10%. Similarly, Alaska experienced a 10% jump in domestic flights, with a 30% rise in travelers from Dallas, Texas—a city known for its extreme summer heat. Tourism agencies in Scandinavia have welcomed this trend, promoting cooler alternatives to typical holidays in the scorching sun.
The Mediterranean, a long-standing summer favorite destination, has been affected by extreme weather events. Spain and Italy have recorded their hottest years in 2022 and 2023, while Greece has battled severe wildfires and droughts. A 2023 EU Commission study forecast the growth of tourism demand in northern and central Europe and its decline in the south by 2100. To support this prediction, a European Travel Commission survey found that 74% of travelers now avoid destinations with extreme heat.
As a result, it has been noted that the Mediterranean summer is moving away from a single high-priced peak season in July and August. Travellers braving the hottest months might, in fact, benefit from lower rates. On the other hand, the new trend suggests that there will be two high seasons, May-June and September-October. This shift means that hotels and other accommodation establishments in central and southern Italy and in the south of France are staying open for longer, even all-year round on some occasions.
In Kenya, owners of safari camps have noticed a breakdown of traditional seasonal predictability. One of them explains that consistent and easily forecast weather patterns used to force all safari camps to close during the rainy season. However, the rains now arrive unpredictably – sometimes early, sometimes late, or not at all – leading to unforeseen or unnecessary closures. As a result, they are seeing more visitors opting for safaris during traditionally off-peak and rainy periods to take advantage of lower prices.
However, not all experts agree that coolcations are a lasting trend. On Visit Sweden’s website, there’s no clear indication whether demand for cooler climates is rising, while Visit Norway’s website suggests that favorable exchange rates and marketing are responsible for their tourism growth—not just weather. The vast majority of German tourists, for example, still prefer warm destinations—though that could change in the future. In 2023, out of Germany’s 65 million vacations, only 3.6 million were to northern countries like Sweden or Norway. Spain, Italy, and Greece remain top choices, with “sun and beach” destinations as the main attraction for European travel.
Although northern Europe and the Alps could become popular options if Mediterranean summers become too hot to handle, experts believe such a change would take decades. For now, Southern Europe’s popularity continues, with over 300 million travelers visiting the region in 2023 compared to 80 million in the north. However, many argue that coolcation is more of a marketing approach than a real movement. Some researchers say that such a trend doesn’t exist, but it’s an idea that some countries’ tourism boards have made up, hoping to attract more visitors during less popular months.